Global Food Inflation Is Coming: What It Means for Your Grocery Bill

File Photo: 5-kilogram sacks of premium rice, which according to the shopkeeper, have become scarce in recent weeks, are displayed for sale at a supermarket in Jakarta, Indonesia, October 1, 2026.

The UN's food agency warns that food prices will keep rising into 2027 as war, costly fertiliser and El Niño squeeze supply. Here is what it means at home.

Global food inflation is set to accelerate in the coming months and last well into 2027, according to a Reuters report published on Monday, 19 October 2026. War-related shipping disruptions and drought linked to El Niño are squeezing cereal supplies, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest. South Africa is not immune, because the same forces, fuel, fertiliser and a hotter, drier summer, apply here too.

Key facts

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, the highest since November 2022.
The World Bank says food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries it analysed in the September quarter, up from 14% in the previous quarter.
Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, and rice prices in key Asian exporting countries are up 10% to 13%.
Freight rates are up about 50% on some key routes, such as the Black Sea to Southeast Asia.
Indonesian rice and Indian sugar have hit record highs, and unsubsidised bread in Egypt is about 25% more expensive.

Why prices are rising

War and shipping

Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted wheat shipments, forcing major importers to find other suppliers. Insecurity in the Red Sea pushes vessels onto longer, costlier routes around Africa. The US-Israeli war on Iran has raised fuel prices and disrupted fertiliser exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which raises farming costs.

An Egyptian banana vendor pushes his cart while seeking customers at a market, as further increases in food prices could heighten the risk of social unrest and prompt governments of major producing countries to impose export restrictions, potentially worsening supply shortages, in Cairo, Egypt, October 13, 2026. REUTERS

El Niño

Dry El Niño weather is reducing output in India and Southeast Asia. India has had its weakest monsoon in over a decade, which curbed sugar production. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said the situation has put "considerable pressure on the system", and expects a bigger impact towards the end of this year and the start of next.

Shrinking buffers

Record global grain stocks and good harvests have cushioned prices so far, but Torero says those buffers are under pressure. Importers in the Middle East and Africa that held off buying after strong local harvests need to return to the market, and an International Grains Council economist expects a significant new wave of demand in a couple of months. Food processors are also renewing three- to six-month contracts at higher prices, with weaker currencies magnifying the costs in many countries.

The South African angle

South Africa's position is mixed. The country had a strong harvest in the last season, which gives a short-term cushion, according to commentary in Daily Maverick. But the South African Weather Service expects a very strong El Niño this summer, and below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome for most of the country between October and December. Farmers face high input costs, and fuel has risen to record levels. South Africa also imports a significant share of the wheat it consumes, so global wheat prices and the rand matter. Nedbank has said higher transport costs are a main source of inflation pressure here.

Read our reports on KZN's El Niño warning and record fuel prices.

What this means for you

Expect gradual increases in bread, cooking oil, sugar and meat prices over the coming months, rather than a sudden jump.
Compare unit prices (price per kilogram or litre) rather than package prices, which can hide shrinking sizes.
Buy staples when on special, but only what you can store and use. Over-buying wastes money.
Plan meals around cheaper protein such as beans, lentils, eggs and chicken, depending on prices.
Grow what you can. Herbs, spinach and tomatoes grown at home cut costs.
For a broader plan, see our guide to building wealth on a South African salary.

What happens next

The FAO and World Bank will publish new price data in the coming weeks.
Governments that supply large volumes of food could impose export bans if prices spike, which would worsen shortages elsewhere.
South African inflation data on Wednesday will give an early look at local price pressures.

Frequently asked questions

Is a global food crisis coming?

Prices are rising and could keep rising into 2027, but supplies remain adequate for now. The risk is highest for poorer countries and households.

What is the FAO Food Price Index?

A monthly measure of changes in international prices of a basket of key food commodities. September's reading of 136 was the highest since November 2022.